Netbooks lead the way on how we’ll be using our mobile phones in the near future

Netbooks are set to revolutionize the mega-trend “Cloud computing” sweeping the technology landscape.

Based on some findings released by ThinkFree based on a survey they conducted, Netbooks are mainly being used for for business, entertainment and communication. Another survey noted that Netbooks will be used as secondary devices. Let’s analyze how they’re being used in each of these categories.

Business

Primarily used for reviewing documents, spreadsheets, presentations and making minor edits, but not generally treating netbooks the primary machine for these applications.

My Opinion: As they are treated as secondary devices, I don’t expect people to pay for Microsoft Office. Thunderbird, Open Office etc are sufficient for simple email management and some word processing.

Entertainment

Browsing the web, listening to music and viewing/editing photos.

My Opinion: As browser and media player are anyway free, Picasa can easily be used for viewing and quick image editing and posting photos to the net.

Communication

Sending email, IM, making VOIP calls and creating blog posts.

Next Step

Since it’s not replacing the laptop, I think what’s basically missing
is a phone added to the mix. I don’t see why users will want to carry
mobile, netbook and laptop at the same time. I foresee a Nokia communicator type device with decent screen size and usable keypad to overtake the Netbook just like Smarphones overtook the PDA. The software being used will need to be adopted for this new phone, that said, software to do all the above already exists for mobiles, it just needs to be made more easy to use.

With larger screen size and better keyboard I don’t see a reason why we’ll not see Netbooks being phased out to give way for the next generation of mobile phones.

Is this thought too outlandish? What do you think?

Firefox brings its biggest strength to its mobile browser… Extensions

The great thing about extensions is that they allow you to customize your browsing experience to suit your particular needs. What it really brings to the table for the browser is an ecosystem of developers and users around it, giving it an edge which is extremely difficult to counter. This is what made it the biggest strength that Firefox had over Internet Explorer.

Fennec Logo

Now we’ve seen with the success of Firefox and iPhone App Store how important an ecosystem really is to a product. And now, Firefox brings it’s biggest strength to mobile with Fennec (mobile version of Firefox).

The first extension to be released for Fennec is URL Fixer, a handy tool that corrects typos in URLs typed in the address bar.

Just as in PC, extensions will be a killer feature for Fennec. This is bad news for current players in the market because you can counter Tabbed Browsing, Search Integration, Spell Checking, Session Restore, RSS Feeds blah, blah, blah etc; but it’s very difficult to counter an ecosystem. And that too a real big one, because Fennec will be leveraging an already flourishing ecosystem on the PC.

What extensions would you like to see in a mobile browser?

Confluence of Mobile, PC, TV and Cinema

Andrew Grill talks about mobile as the fourth screen as depicted in a Nokia Ad

1st screen = cinema
2nd screen = TV
3rd screen = internet
4th screen = mobile

What I’m waiting for is the confluence of these screens where context would be switched seamlessly based on which screen we want to watch whatever we’re watching based on where we are. For example, TV is preferred in living room, PC when at work and Mobile when outside, so when I come to living room from outside whatever I’m watching/hearing (doing?) on the mobile shifts to the TV. Whatever I’m doing on PC shifts to mobile when I want to move out…

Content created on PC and mobile will be shown in Cinema. Note that content created in PC is already shown in Cinema… animated flicks, I believe adding mobile to the mix is a natural progression.

IMHO it’s inevitable, just a matter of time. What do you think?

Google Chrome Strategy: V8+Gears vs. Silverlight

In all this hullabullo over Chrome, it’s a delight to come across voices that see through the clutter. Came across one such voice in a comment on Chrome by Josh Jonte

Chrome, by Google’s own admission, borrowed heavily from Mozilla. Google is most interested in getting their new virtual machine (aka VM, AKA Javascript engine), V8, out into the wild. V8 was written and designed by one of the most capable VM software engineers in the world. It’s an extremely high-performance VM. Google’s Sergey Brin has already commented that V8 will “probably” run on Android. V8 is really just a dynamic language runtime, one of the languages it happens to run is JavaScript.

Google Gears is written in JavaScript. The latest release of Gears includes very OS-centric and application-centric features; things like worker threads, timers, http requests, a row-store.

Now, imagine if Google Gears ran on Google App Engine. Instead of persisting the database in the browser (Sqlite), it persists to BigTable. You would be able to spawn things like worker threads, timers, and http requests. What would it take to run Gears on the server? A high performance dynamic language runtime, a la V8. V8 could potentially run any dynamic programming language, the constructs are similar among all the languages (closures, dynamic typing). App Engine runs Python ATM, Python is a dynamic language. So V8 could be the runtime powering App Engine *right now*.

So the same runtime in the browser, your phone, and the server. All using the same library, Gears.

Microsoft has a similar strategy – Silverlight. Silverlight v2.0 is going have built into it a feature known as the DLR, dynamic language runtime. The DLR, per Microsoft’s own commitment, is going to run three languages at it’s release – Python, JavaScript, and Ruby. The runtime powering Silverlight is the .Net runtime. That runtime already exists on the server (has for many years), and the .Net runtime for mobiles has been around awhile as well. Thing is though, when you run Silverlight on a Mac or Moonlight, you’re *costing* Microsoft money – you didn’t pay for a license of Windows.

That’s why they need to compete so fiercely in the advertising – they need to subsidize (replace?) the loss of people paying for their software.

At the end of the day, it’s a competition for the Enterprise. Assuming both Microsoft and Google get their data-centers compliant with all the privacy regs (HIPPA, FERPA), they want the enterprise to run their vertical and niche applications on Google or Microsoft cloud.

V8 + Gears vs. Silverlight

Ironically (maybe not), Chrome is really just that for Google – it’s just chrome for their runtime.

Funny thing is, I don’t Adobe knows what they’re getting themselves into with AIR

Google’s Chrome is aimed at Windows, not IE

In my previous post I had talked about Microsoft finally coming up with a worthy reply to Firefox with IE 8. I guess I published that post a tad bit early because Google launched Chrome in the next 12 hours. So here’s a re-analysis of the landscape taking this crucial development into account.

Launching Chrome means Google’s given up on Firefox, they’re even using Webkit as a base and not Mozilla, I think we can safely count Firefox, Opera and Safari as side shows, in the long run, this will be between Google and Microsoft. I’m not going to go into the features or technicals, the web is plastered with those, I’ll analyze the long term impact this will have instead.

Google putting their hat in the ring means we’re in for a long haul, this is no longer about browser but about the an entire marketplace spread between desktop, mobile and web. With Chrome, Google’s taking a shot at Windows, not paltry Internet Explorer.

Back in 1997, during the heady days of Netscape Navigator, Marc Anderseen, Netscape’s co-founder said

The browser, could “reduce Windows to a set of poorly debugged device drivers.”

Google’s browser is posing the exact same threat that Marc Anderseen talked about, only Google’s a much more serious competitor. With their presence in Web and mobile and extending slowly to the Desktop, Google’s posing a serious threat at Microsoft’s core business model.

GigaOm sums up the direct threat to Windows

Google Chrome has faster JavaScript VM, better memory management, better Windows UI rendering, faster text layout and rendering,  and intelligent page navigation in comparison to other more widely adopted browsers. When combined with Google Gears technology, this is as close as you can get to replicating the desktop experience with web applications

In the not so far away future, we’re going to see a confluence between desktop, web and mobile and the slug-fest will be between players that have stakes in all three places (meaning Apple, Microsoft and Google). We’re going to see mobile-only players like Nokia and web-only ones like Yahoo reduced to a minority.

Now it all depends on how far Microsoft lets Google go with Android and Chrome before coming up with a response. I hope it’s not as long as they took in responding to Sun’s JAVA because this time around timing’s gonna count way more.

IE Vs Firefox: Welcome back to the Browser Wars

Microsoft has come up with IE 8 (beta available for public download). A normal reaction would be… Big deal, who cares about a browser from Microsoft, Firefox just set a record of maximum software downloads, it’s hands down the best browser and Microsoft sucks.

Back in ‘97

Well, it is a big deal because I see history repeating itself. Back in 1997, Netscape was the leading browser and IE 3 had performed abysmally.  Marc Anderseen, Netscape’s co-founder said

The browser, could “reduce Windows to a set of poorly debugged device drivers.”

Microsoft saw a potential threat and in 4.0 release created the best browser of the time. According to BroadbandInfo

The main reason that Internet Explorer was able to beat Netscape Navigator was because it had, quite simply, built a better browser.

The user experience on IE 4 was so good that you saw “Best viewed in Internet Explorer” splashed across pages all over the world wide web.

Present day

Fast forward to present day and the browser threat is alive and kicking, more importantly Marc Anderseen’s words seem to be coming to fruition, with Web 2.0 and cloud computing, browser is on it’s way to becoming “the universal client”. Firefox share in the browser market is 19% and growing, and Google’s looming on the horizon.

Back in 2001, Microsoft was resting on its laurels and launched IE 6, it was a disaster and caused the Exodus to Firefox. IE 7 was a catch up effort and IE 8 is Microsoft’s answer to Firefox. It intends to beat Firefox in performace, features and user experience. Dean Hachamovitch, general manager of Microsoft’s Internet Explorer group says

In things big and small, it is a better experience

My point of view on Microsoft

I’ve been watching Microsoft since the MS-DOS days and have seen it proclaimed dead many a time, and everytime it faced stiff competition I’ve seen Microsoft bounce back from the dead and steamroll it’s way through the competition, obliterating anyone in its path, big or small, be it Netscape or Sun Microsystems by offering better products.

Unless Bill’s departure has changed Microsoft’s DNA, we’re going to see history repeat itself one more time.

iPhone Killer will not be a phone

Image via CrunchBase, source unknown

Ever since iPhone’s launch there’s been a lot of flurry over the iPhone Killer, there’ve been plenty of Top 10 iPhone Killers lists. Every time a flagship product is launched or announced from leading handset manufacturers it’s touted to be the iPhone Killer.

Unlike Motorola’s RAZR, iPhone will not be killed by another phone, simply because it’s not just a phone, it’s a platform with a kick-ass phone at the center and an ecosystem around it where developers can easily create and publish applications and users can easily download and use them. This is unprecedented in the mobile industry, never before has creation and distribution of applications been so simple. As Techcrunch’s Andy Merrett puts it

The beauty of the iPhone is that you can add a collection of applications that uniquely identify you, and help you do the things you want when mobile

True competition to iPhone will not come from another phone but from another platform like Google’s Android or Nokia’s Open Symbian.

GigaOm captures the essence of this paradigm shift really well

In this platform game, the winner is going to be the one that can attract the most developers

And develpors love iPhone because it takes the operator out of the picture and gives them a platform where user engagement is 50 times more than any other platform because of the amazing user experience. Over 60 million iPhone apps were downloaded within one month of iPhone 3G’s launch, that’s a huge number to contend with.

Not that others don’t realize this, Google’s Android Developer Challenge was aimed at luring developers to their platform. With 14 phones shipped every second, Nokia’s hard to ignore by developers due to sheer numbers, and although it has floundered a very big opportunity in the past it’s bound to come back with a vengeance with it’s Ovi strategy. Not to be outdone, Samsung plans it’s own Ovi type strategy.

We’re in for some very interesting times. What do you think?

Understanding ‘User Needs’ a Mobile Social Network can satisfy

Mobile phone enables real-time feedback from the users and enables him to live in the moment. When you are surfing the Web with a stationary PC at home, you are either accessing information about some past events, or some real-time information about some event a distance away. In contrast, with mobile phone you can take part in the event, capture it, provide comments and share all this with others. Mobile phone therefore provides richer social interaction. The core of mobility is not movement but context. Adding context-awareness to services brings about complexity, but at the same time lots and lots of possibilities.

In a previous post, I had written about a few mobile social networking scenarios. Now before we go designing something, it’s important to understand the user needs that the product will satisfy. Here I want to put forth my take on what user needs I felt a mobile social network can satisfy based on which I created those scenarios.

• Get updates on what’s going on with my social circle whenever I have time or feel the need to check on them.
  
• Conversation is what the whole deal is about. It’s easy to see who’s available to chat right now and a conversation can be started anytime/anywhere.
• Transmit my location to let others know where I am at the moment so they can interact with me based on that
• Find out if there are any friends near my location.
  This would be better executed with a map as user gets a visual reference of proximity of his friends, and can figure out exactly where all of them are easily in reference to his own location, much more powerful than say 10 street addresses. Narrowing down or expanding the field is useful if to get him those friends in range with whom he can interact with at that moment
• Instantly share my thoughts or pics/videos with my social circle and get instant feedback from those who may be tuned in.
• I’m at a location and curious about what others have done at or said about this location, phone can bring up photos, videos of the location and comments entered for the location
• As the number of friends increase, the noise level increases and it’s very tiresome to sort through them on a mobile. If there’s a person or group that user is most interested in at any time, he shouldn’t have to parse through the entire feed, he should be able to get updates just from that person or group.
• All said and done, privacy is a big concern. There are some things I can share with all my friends, others I only want to share with close friends and some I want to share only with family. These concerns must be addressed and user should be put in total control of his privacy settings.
• For a mobile social network to be of any use to me, it must work on my friend’s phones as well.

I feel a mobile social network is best implemented when integrated with the Phonebook. See Finally… Phonebook gets social for why I think so and advances being made on this front.

Mobile Wallet is “Near”

According to a recent survey, for 38% people, mobile has become more important than their wallets, no surprise then that the industry is working towards replacing the wallet with the mobile by integrating NFC (Near Field Communication) chips in the phone.

According to a new analysis from Juniper Research, NFC mobile payments market will exceed $75 billion globally by 2013, when 20% of all phones shipped will possess NFC capability. ABI Research claims that by 2010, more than 50% of mobile handsets – some 500 million units – will incorporate NFC capabilities.

Benefits to the user

NFC Touchpoint - Touch and Travel

The advantage of NFC integrated into the phone is it allows applications to be built on top of it, making it a true mobile wallet. This enables NFC to also be used for other purposes like access to public transport, your company or your car for that matter.

Forum Nokia describes the benefits of NFC for consumers

With just a point or a touch, NFC enables effortless use of the devices and gadgets we use daily. Here are some examples of what a user can do with an NFC mobile phone in an NFC-enabled environment:

• Download music or video from a smart poster.
• Exchange business cards with another phone.
• Pay bus or train fare.
• Print an image on a printer.
• Use a point-of-sale terminal to pay for a purchase, the same way as with a standard contactless credit card.
• Pair two Bluetooth devices.

A Usage Scenario

In response to a question on LinkedIn, Alvin Wong Kee Choong gave a wonderful scenario of how NFC coupled with LBS would simplify our daily life

Location: India
Scenario: Meeting a customer in an unfamiliar location
Transport: Delhi Metro
Phones: NFC enabled devices with GPS

Description:

• Key in address details on phone and click search
• Found address and selects transportation method, select Delhi Metro
• Calculates proximity to nearest station from current location and produces directions how to reach there
• Following instructions, reaches beginning train station
• Takes phone and makes quick purchase of newspaper to read from newsvendor or vending box secured and accessible via contactless reader, using NFC credit card application on phone
• Uses NFC phone to tap into station turnstile reader, using Delhi Metro card application in phone
• Reaches destination station, taps out with phone
• Passes by Starbucks smart poster on wall, quick tap of NFC phone, downloads mobile coupon
• Stops by Starbucks for purchase and uses mobile coupon for instant redemption of breakfast coffee at discount
• Checks phone location again, application recognises current location and with destination saved, maps out nearest path to reach customer meeting location
• Shakes hand with customer, taps customer NFC phone to exchange business card details

Related articles by Zemanta

• Pay-by-phone commerce coming closer
• Mobile Phones Equipped with Near Field Communications (NFC) to Generate $75bn worth of Payment Transactions Within 5 Years
• Nokia 6131 NFC: Can it give credit cards a run for their money?
• Taiwanese to use mobile phones for subway fares, shopping
• Mobiles to help drive contactless payments

Finally… Phonebook gets social

I have always believed that mobile phone is the best platform for socializing because the Phonebook already contains all the contacts that you care about, now you might go on binges and vampire bites with your 1000+ contacts on Facebook or MySpace, but those in your Phonebook (and email contact list) are the one’s that really matter.

I believe the best (or widely accepted) mobile social network will be the one which will integrate with the mobile’s Phonebook. I’m glad to see advances are being made in this area by Zyb. What’s important is that it needs to support the phones that my friends use, till then it’s of no use to me. Good news is that guys at Zyb understand this and support the widest range of phones that I’ve seen either directly or via 3rd parties.

Here are a few things Zyb enables:

Where are you

If your friends allow their location to be visible to you, it points them out on a map. It also shows a list of friends near you

What are you up to

Shows your friends’ Twitter and Facebook status. Also shows your Flickr photo updates and blog updates among other things. There’s even an icon that indicates if someone’s available, busy etc

What’s your new number

If your friends change their number or Avatar pic, it’s automatically updated in your ZYB phonebook

This is good, but I want more…

Now if only this could be integrated with the native phonebook on the mobile, and if someone could merge this with my email contacts so I have “one” device independent contact list